Crypto Currency Bubble

[Extended Cuts]

Originally Posted by OSKAR

What does that have to do with anything?

It's no secret that a month ago bitcoin hit an all time high $19k only for it to drop to $14k then for it to rise again to $17k last week and then back down to 13k a week later. That's a 4k fluctuation each week and that's what volatility means. People living on 'mansions and shit' does not mean that they are smart investors nor that bitcoin is the way forward. They just got lucky, as if the won the lotto.

Your exposure on bitcoin's price is enormous anyway you slice it. Now, talking volatility in stock market terms, yes, there are some stocks who's price flactuate alot but then again the price per unit is a 1000x less than that of a bitcoin (as high volatile stocks are startup companies). If you want to spend thousands to purchase a single stock in the stock market, then you are looking at blue chips that more or less have stable returns. When investing in the stock market no one goes all out and invests on volatile stocks. They include these stocks in a portfolio and then diversify the risk through fixed income instruments and other alternatve investment instruments (that have low correlation to stocks). That is smart investing.

Bitcoin is just a shithole. You spend 14k to buy today and may already be 4k short by tommorow. This ain't investing...its gambling

PS: No other cryptocurrency will reach the levels of performance that bitcoin did simply because there are to many out there now. This means, that people will try to invest in the next bitcoin (every person investing in to a different crypto) rather than draw all of this demand/attention into a specific one (which will lead to a hge price increase).

A real investor won't get paranoid when shit goes down, because it will just go back up, a good way to lose your money is to pull it out when it goes down, like I said, any investment is risky, it's probably more controlled than the stock market/real estate right now, this attitude is why me and many others didn't jump on it in 2010, we could all be millionaires by now, and it wouldn't be luck either,all them dudes that got rich off it, new what was going to happen, and wasn't stubborn like we was, so I hardly call that luck.

[Extended Cuts]

Originally Posted by OSKAR

What does that have to do with anything?

It's no secret that a month ago bitcoin hit an all time high $19k only for it to drop to $14k then for it to rise again to $17k last week and then back down to 13k a week later. That's a 4k fluctuation each week and that's what volatility means. People living on 'mansions and shit' does not mean that they are smart investors nor that bitcoin is the way forward. They just got lucky, as if the won the lotto.

Your exposure on bitcoin's price is enormous anyway you slice it. Now, talking volatility in stock market terms, yes, there are some stocks who's price flactuate alot but then again the price per unit is a 1000x less than that of a bitcoin (as high volatile stocks are startup companies). If you want to spend thousands to purchase a single stock in the stock market, then you are looking at blue chips that more or less have stable returns. When investing in the stock market no one goes all out and invests on volatile stocks. They include these stocks in a portfolio and then diversify the risk through fixed income instruments and other alternatve investment instruments (that have low correlation to stocks). That is smart investing.

Bitcoin is just a shithole. You spend 14k to buy today and may already be 4k short by tommorow. This ain't investing...its gambling

PS: No other cryptocurrency will reach the levels of performance that bitcoin did simply because there are to many out there now. This means, that people will try to invest in the next bitcoin (every person investing in to a different crypto) rather than draw all of this demand/attention into a specific one (which will lead to a hge price increase).

A real investor won't get paranoid when shit goes down, because it will just go back up, a good way to lose your money is to pull it out when it goes down, like I said, any investment is risky, it's probably more controlled than the stock market/real estate right now, this attitude is why me and many others didn't jump on it in 2010, we could all be millionaires by now, and it wouldn't be luck either,all them dudes that got rich off it, new what was going to happen, and wasn't stubborn like we was, so I hardly call that luck.

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by diasick

A real investor won't get paranoid when shit goes down, because it will just go back up, a good way to lose your money is to pull it out when it goes down, like I said, any investment is risky, it's probably more controlled than the stock market/real estate right now, this attitude is why me and many others didn't jump on it in 2010, we could all be millionaires by now, and it wouldn't be luck either,all them dudes that got rich off it, new what was going to happen, and wasn't stubborn like we was, so I hardly call that luck.

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

---------- Post added at 12:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

A few other things. Here is why the bitcoin bubble will pop CRAZY hard.


Investors have break-even points, what I mean is this... If you invest in a stock at 10 dollars that is your break-even. If the value of the stock goes below 10 then you are losing money. Your decision to either hold or sell is based upon your valuation of the stock. If you think the stock should be worth $20 then you will hold due to your belief that the market price will eventually reflect that. If you think that the stock is really worth $5 and you're just trading momentum then you will sell at or around 10 because you don't have faith in it going higher.


Momentum stocks are usually top loaded, meaning a few people get in at the bottom and make a ton, but most people get in much later during the frenzy and buy at a price above the valuation. This buying keeps upping the price so that more and more people keep getting in and it goes up a shit ton. Eventually, people get scared and start selling off. Since most of the people are in at the top, and they are above their valuation (bitcoin has no valuation, fwiw) they have no incentive to hold below their break even. Thus, when you get a major downward move in a crypto like bitcoin the huge mass of people invested at the top all start selling and the massive sell pressure drives the price down massive amounts. This has already happened to some degree a couple of times already. Bitcoin has ZERO fundamental valuation and the only reason people hold it is because they think they can make money off of it. Once people realize they cannot make money buying pressure will fail and the currency will go down a crazy amount. I think that there will someday be the bitcoin superpop and it could go under 1k.


Another thing, bitcoin has no valuation because it is basically unusable as a currency. It is a volatile deflationary currency with no banking system and an economic model that hasn't been used since the 1800's. It is a horrible currency for actually using on a day to day basis, it cannot power a stable economy.

---------- Post added at 12:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:42 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Shodan

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by diasick

A real investor won't get paranoid when shit goes down, because it will just go back up, a good way to lose your money is to pull it out when it goes down, like I said, any investment is risky, it's probably more controlled than the stock market/real estate right now, this attitude is why me and many others didn't jump on it in 2010, we could all be millionaires by now, and it wouldn't be luck either,all them dudes that got rich off it, new what was going to happen, and wasn't stubborn like we was, so I hardly call that luck.

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

---------- Post added at 12:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

A few other things. Here is why the bitcoin bubble will pop CRAZY hard.


Investors have break-even points, what I mean is this... If you invest in a stock at 10 dollars that is your break-even. If the value of the stock goes below 10 then you are losing money. Your decision to either hold or sell is based upon your valuation of the stock. If you think the stock should be worth $20 then you will hold due to your belief that the market price will eventually reflect that. If you think that the stock is really worth $5 and you're just trading momentum then you will sell at or around 10 because you don't have faith in it going higher.


Momentum stocks are usually top loaded, meaning a few people get in at the bottom and make a ton, but most people get in much later during the frenzy and buy at a price above the valuation. This buying keeps upping the price so that more and more people keep getting in and it goes up a shit ton. Eventually, people get scared and start selling off. Since most of the people are in at the top, and they are above their valuation (bitcoin has no valuation, fwiw) they have no incentive to hold below their break even. Thus, when you get a major downward move in a crypto like bitcoin the huge mass of people invested at the top all start selling and the massive sell pressure drives the price down massive amounts. This has already happened to some degree a couple of times already. Bitcoin has ZERO fundamental valuation and the only reason people hold it is because they think they can make money off of it. Once people realize they cannot make money buying pressure will fail and the currency will go down a crazy amount. I think that there will someday be the bitcoin superpop and it could go under 1k.


Another thing, bitcoin has no valuation because it is basically unusable as a currency. It is a volatile deflationary currency with no banking system and an economic model that hasn't been used since the 1800's. It is a horrible currency for actually using on a day to day basis, it cannot power a stable economy.

---------- Post added at 12:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:42 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Shodan

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

[Shodan]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

[Shodan]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by Shodan

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

lol what companies are you referring to? Real prop trading is HFT's. Hedge funds and shit are dying. Also returns have to normalized over a multi-year period to remove statistical noise, you can randomly pick stocks and defeat professionals in the short term. 8's are also fucking retarded, not going less than 16.

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by Shodan

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

lol what companies are you referring to? Real prop trading is HFT's. Hedge funds and shit are dying. Also returns have to normalized over a multi-year period to remove statistical noise, you can randomly pick stocks and defeat professionals in the short term. 8's are also fucking retarded, not going less than 16.

[Extended Cuts]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

what are you talking about there is is fundamental value in bitcoin, you can live off the shit, it could be at 100k by tomorrow, those who pulled there money out will be kicking there feet, if it goes down it will go back up, I would certainly rather invest in crypto than real estate right now.

[Extended Cuts]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

what are you talking about there is is fundamental value in bitcoin, you can live off the shit, it could be at 100k by tomorrow, those who pulled there money out will be kicking there feet, if it goes down it will go back up, I would certainly rather invest in crypto than real estate right now.

[Shodan]

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies

[Shodan]

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies