Crypto Currency Bubble

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by Babylon

That's kinda the entire premise of stock trading as well, you'll hit a wall make a mistake or lose some money inevitably if youre in the game long enough, but if you know when to pull out and what amount to pull out just create a safety net and always have more than you initially put in. It's entirely possible to cash in on BTC, just takes timing & apt decision making

Not really, I used to trade professionally and there are no fundamentals to bitcoin that gives it value. When you invest in a ticker you're really trading on a valuation of future cash flow for a company, bitcoin has no inherent value. It's currency speculation.

When you do currency speculation you're betting on the faith, credit, and economy of a certain country and or central bank that issues the currency. Bitcoin has no meaningful economy, it is an inherently unusable currency for a multitude of reasons, mainly the facts that it has no countercyclical monetary controls to control money flow and no way money multiplier effect from banks that could leverage the deflationary tendencies of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just based off of speculation, and speculative bubbles are basically an incredible way to lose money.

Can you make money off of bitcoin? Sure. Can you lose way more. Absolutely. You should make investments based off of fundamentals and numbers, not off of the Bitcoin slot machine, especially at such an inflated price.

---------- Post added at 12:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:20 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Nicholas

Not investing in cryptocurrency is dumb. It's just a matter of time before it hits the mainstream. Short-term ability to make and lose huge amounts of money are both feasible. Long term I think it's just a matter of time before it becomes a part of our day to day at which point the cost of the coins will be much higher.

I have a few hundred in, but I've basically forgotten about that money now. I'll let it do it's thing and see where the ride takes us.

The mainstream of cryptocurrency will be a federally backed crypto whose value matches the dollar. I think it will happen pretty soon, and I personally would welcome it.

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by Babylon

That's kinda the entire premise of stock trading as well, you'll hit a wall make a mistake or lose some money inevitably if youre in the game long enough, but if you know when to pull out and what amount to pull out just create a safety net and always have more than you initially put in. It's entirely possible to cash in on BTC, just takes timing & apt decision making

Not really, I used to trade professionally and there are no fundamentals to bitcoin that gives it value. When you invest in a ticker you're really trading on a valuation of future cash flow for a company, bitcoin has no inherent value. It's currency speculation.

When you do currency speculation you're betting on the faith, credit, and economy of a certain country and or central bank that issues the currency. Bitcoin has no meaningful economy, it is an inherently unusable currency for a multitude of reasons, mainly the facts that it has no countercyclical monetary controls to control money flow and no way money multiplier effect from banks that could leverage the deflationary tendencies of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is just based off of speculation, and speculative bubbles are basically an incredible way to lose money.

Can you make money off of bitcoin? Sure. Can you lose way more. Absolutely. You should make investments based off of fundamentals and numbers, not off of the Bitcoin slot machine, especially at such an inflated price.

---------- Post added at 12:22 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:20 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Nicholas

Not investing in cryptocurrency is dumb. It's just a matter of time before it hits the mainstream. Short-term ability to make and lose huge amounts of money are both feasible. Long term I think it's just a matter of time before it becomes a part of our day to day at which point the cost of the coins will be much higher.

I have a few hundred in, but I've basically forgotten about that money now. I'll let it do it's thing and see where the ride takes us.

The mainstream of cryptocurrency will be a federally backed crypto whose value matches the dollar. I think it will happen pretty soon, and I personally would welcome it.

[Shodan]

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies

[Shodan]

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by diasick

A real investor won't get paranoid when shit goes down, because it will just go back up, a good way to lose your money is to pull it out when it goes down, like I said, any investment is risky, it's probably more controlled than the stock market/real estate right now, this attitude is why me and many others didn't jump on it in 2010, we could all be millionaires by now, and it wouldn't be luck either,all them dudes that got rich off it, new what was going to happen, and wasn't stubborn like we was, so I hardly call that luck.

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

---------- Post added at 12:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

A few other things. Here is why the bitcoin bubble will pop CRAZY hard.


Investors have break-even points, what I mean is this... If you invest in a stock at 10 dollars that is your break-even. If the value of the stock goes below 10 then you are losing money. Your decision to either hold or sell is based upon your valuation of the stock. If you think the stock should be worth $20 then you will hold due to your belief that the market price will eventually reflect that. If you think that the stock is really worth $5 and you're just trading momentum then you will sell at or around 10 because you don't have faith in it going higher.


Momentum stocks are usually top loaded, meaning a few people get in at the bottom and make a ton, but most people get in much later during the frenzy and buy at a price above the valuation. This buying keeps upping the price so that more and more people keep getting in and it goes up a shit ton. Eventually, people get scared and start selling off. Since most of the people are in at the top, and they are above their valuation (bitcoin has no valuation, fwiw) they have no incentive to hold below their break even. Thus, when you get a major downward move in a crypto like bitcoin the huge mass of people invested at the top all start selling and the massive sell pressure drives the price down massive amounts. This has already happened to some degree a couple of times already. Bitcoin has ZERO fundamental valuation and the only reason people hold it is because they think they can make money off of it. Once people realize they cannot make money buying pressure will fail and the currency will go down a crazy amount. I think that there will someday be the bitcoin superpop and it could go under 1k.


Another thing, bitcoin has no valuation because it is basically unusable as a currency. It is a volatile deflationary currency with no banking system and an economic model that hasn't been used since the 1800's. It is a horrible currency for actually using on a day to day basis, it cannot power a stable economy.

---------- Post added at 12:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:42 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Shodan

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by diasick

A real investor won't get paranoid when shit goes down, because it will just go back up, a good way to lose your money is to pull it out when it goes down, like I said, any investment is risky, it's probably more controlled than the stock market/real estate right now, this attitude is why me and many others didn't jump on it in 2010, we could all be millionaires by now, and it wouldn't be luck either,all them dudes that got rich off it, new what was going to happen, and wasn't stubborn like we was, so I hardly call that luck.

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

---------- Post added at 12:42 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:25 PM ----------

A few other things. Here is why the bitcoin bubble will pop CRAZY hard.


Investors have break-even points, what I mean is this... If you invest in a stock at 10 dollars that is your break-even. If the value of the stock goes below 10 then you are losing money. Your decision to either hold or sell is based upon your valuation of the stock. If you think the stock should be worth $20 then you will hold due to your belief that the market price will eventually reflect that. If you think that the stock is really worth $5 and you're just trading momentum then you will sell at or around 10 because you don't have faith in it going higher.


Momentum stocks are usually top loaded, meaning a few people get in at the bottom and make a ton, but most people get in much later during the frenzy and buy at a price above the valuation. This buying keeps upping the price so that more and more people keep getting in and it goes up a shit ton. Eventually, people get scared and start selling off. Since most of the people are in at the top, and they are above their valuation (bitcoin has no valuation, fwiw) they have no incentive to hold below their break even. Thus, when you get a major downward move in a crypto like bitcoin the huge mass of people invested at the top all start selling and the massive sell pressure drives the price down massive amounts. This has already happened to some degree a couple of times already. Bitcoin has ZERO fundamental valuation and the only reason people hold it is because they think they can make money off of it. Once people realize they cannot make money buying pressure will fail and the currency will go down a crazy amount. I think that there will someday be the bitcoin superpop and it could go under 1k.


Another thing, bitcoin has no valuation because it is basically unusable as a currency. It is a volatile deflationary currency with no banking system and an economic model that hasn't been used since the 1800's. It is a horrible currency for actually using on a day to day basis, it cannot power a stable economy.

---------- Post added at 12:45 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:42 PM ----------

Originally Posted by Shodan

I used to have a spreadsheet where I invested fictional money in stocks and followed their performance. I gained quite a bit of money. Tfw I'm better at stock trading than some companies

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

[Shodan]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

[Shodan]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

No you're not, because most companies are going to HFT and algo trading, which blows any human trader out of the water. A good quant can write a python script, backtest it, and destroy 99% of human traders within a week.

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by Shodan

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

lol what companies are you referring to? Real prop trading is HFT's. Hedge funds and shit are dying. Also returns have to normalized over a multi-year period to remove statistical noise, you can randomly pick stocks and defeat professionals in the short term. 8's are also fucking retarded, not going less than 16.

[Louie Dawgs]

Originally Posted by Shodan

Then how come I had better returns than them? If they got half the returns I did they'd be doing way better than they are. Sorry retard, proof is in the pudding and I am a genius.

I'll fuck you up in an 8 too. Send bars faggot

lol what companies are you referring to? Real prop trading is HFT's. Hedge funds and shit are dying. Also returns have to normalized over a multi-year period to remove statistical noise, you can randomly pick stocks and defeat professionals in the short term. 8's are also fucking retarded, not going less than 16.

[Shodan]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

lol what companies are you referring to? Real prop trading is HFT's. Hedge funds and shit are dying. Also returns have to normalized over a multi-year period to remove statistical noise, you can randomly pick stocks and defeat professionals in the short term. 8's are also fucking retarded, not going less than 16.

aight I'll cook something up and murder you

By the way, lol @ the idea of using a script to determine what stocks to buy. That shit'll get you a six figure job maybe but it's not going to get you rich. If you want to do that, you'll need the sort of brilliant insight which only geniuses like me can bring to the table

[Shodan]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

lol what companies are you referring to? Real prop trading is HFT's. Hedge funds and shit are dying. Also returns have to normalized over a multi-year period to remove statistical noise, you can randomly pick stocks and defeat professionals in the short term. 8's are also fucking retarded, not going less than 16.

aight I'll cook something up and murder you

By the way, lol @ the idea of using a script to determine what stocks to buy. That shit'll get you a six figure job maybe but it's not going to get you rich. If you want to do that, you'll need the sort of brilliant insight which only geniuses like me can bring to the table

[Extended Cuts]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

what are you talking about there is is fundamental value in bitcoin, you can live off the shit, it could be at 100k by tomorrow, those who pulled there money out will be kicking there feet, if it goes down it will go back up, I would certainly rather invest in crypto than real estate right now.

[Extended Cuts]

Originally Posted by Louie Dawgs

Oh please.

The reason that you would hold a stock or a currency in a downturn or even a loss if your models still show that you can and will make money based off of your valuation. Bitcoin has no fundamental value, it is not the same.

what are you talking about there is is fundamental value in bitcoin, you can live off the shit, it could be at 100k by tomorrow, those who pulled there money out will be kicking there feet, if it goes down it will go back up, I would certainly rather invest in crypto than real estate right now.